Radio Cadena Agramonte emisiora de Camagüey
Havana, May 8.- The 2024 cyclone season will be very active, with the formation of at least 20 tropical cyclones throughout the North Atlantic basin, the Cuban Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) predicted.
According to experts from the Insmet Forecast Center and Climate Center, 11 of them could reach hurricane status.
Of the total number of tropical cyclones expected to form in the period from June 1 to November 30, 14 could develop in the Atlantic oceanic area, four in the Caribbean Sea and another two in the Gulf of Mexico.
The probability of at least one hurricane originating and intensifying in the Caribbean is very high (85 percent) and that one from the Atlantic origin penetrates this area is 70 percent.
The danger of Cuba being affected by at least one hurricane is 80 percent probability.
According to specialists, the danger is even greater for Cuba that at least one tropical cyclone will affect it, with a probability of 90 percent.
The fundamental oceanic and atmospheric conditions that regulate tropical cyclonic activity over the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea will be favorable for the cyclonic season to be very active, the report added.
The sea surface temperature in the tropical strip of the North Atlantic has shown high values ??from June 2023 to April 2024.
The models indicate that this warming could persist during the cyclone season and favorably influence the formation and development of tropical cyclones.
Another important factor to take into account for the forecast of the cyclonic season is that the current El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event has begun to weaken.
Most models predict that the current ENSO could end in May, with neutral conditions establishing later.
There are high probabilities that a La Niña – Southern Oscillation event will develop in the coming months, which would also be favorable for the cyclonic season to be very active.
The regional atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic has shown signs of active behavior during the months of March and April, which constitutes another favorable condition for the development of cyclonic activity, according to Insmet experts. (Text and photo: PL)
