Radio Cadena Agramonte emisiora de Camagüey
Havana, Dec 5.- In 2024, Latin America and the Caribbean will have limited space for macroeconomic policies and insufficient investments, which suggests a discouraging outlook, according to a United Nations diagnosis.
Although the situation by country is uneven, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the region will show less progress than expected in other parts of the world, considered the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) of the multilateral organization.
According to forecasts, the international economy will lose pace in 2024, with an increase of just 2.4 percentage points, lower than the 2.7 percent estimated for 2023.
The gloomy forecasts take into account the effects of restrictive monetary policies, weak global trade and investment, growing vulnerabilities due to high debt, geopolitical risks and climate impacts.
At the scale of Latin America and the Caribbean, GDP could register an expansion of only 1.6 percentage points this year, after the advance of around 2.2 percent estimated for 2023.
Slower external demand will limit exports, while structural vulnerabilities and political uncertainties will weigh negatively on investment in the area, the United Nations entity argued.
In the opinion of DESA, the modest economic expansion of the United States and China in 2024 could also affect exports, remittances and capital inflows in the area. Likewise, renewed volatility in global financial markets, due to unforeseen decisions by the US central bank or an escalation of geopolitical conflicts, could impact capital inflows, the study added.
Regarding domestic factors, climate-related crises and the El Niño phenomenon could disrupt economic activity and trigger new inflationary pressures in Latin America.
According to the disaggregated calculations, the text pointed out, the three economic engines of the area will experience a year of limited growth.
Brazil would advance only 1.6 percent, compared to the previous 3.1 percent; Mexico would increase its GDP by 2.3 percent in 2024 after growing 3.5 percent in 2023; and Argentina would continue in crisis with a high level of inflation.
On the other hand, Latin American governments face significant limitations in financing the enormous investment necessary to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, the entity considered.
The region should also redouble efforts to reduce tax evasion and avoidance and increase the progressivity of tax systems in order to satisfy its financing needs, as well as implement policies to promote industrialization, DESA advised. (Text and photo: PL)
