Brazil, September 12. - On Thursday afternoon, Minister Carmen Lúcia voted in favor of the conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Now, Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) is on the verge of issuing a historic ruling.
The judge’s vote is the third in favor of the conviction, and with her decision, the simple majority required for the five-member court to resolve the controversy has been reached. The vote of Minister Cristiano Zanin is still pending to deliver the sentence and finally define the irrevocable conviction, in a ruling that represents a turning point in the fight against authoritarianism in South America’s largest democracy.
The sentence will consider Bolsonaro guilty of attempting to overthrow the democratic rule of law and of leading a criminal organization to perpetuate himself in power after his electoral defeat in 2022.
Minister Carmen Lúcia Antunes Rocha, the second woman in history to be part of the STF, began her vote with a strong denunciation of the “coup practices” orchestrated by Bolsonarism starting in 2021.
That year coincided precisely with the restoration of the political rights of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, an event which, according to her account, triggered a series of illegal maneuvers orchestrated from the Planalto Palace once it became known that Bolsonaro would lose the 2022 elections.
A Founding Vote for Brazilian Democracy
Lúcia’s meticulous and well-founded ruling directly opposes the dissenting vote of Minister Luiz Fux, who on Wednesday advocated for the total acquittal of Bolsonaro and five of his allies based on a strict application of the principle of legality. Fux argued that “no one can be punished simply because they deserve punishment according to our moral convictions,” in an intervention that lasted more than fourteen hours.
However, Minister Carmen Lúcia, supporting the position of the case rapporteur, Alexandre de Moraes, and Minister Flávio Dino, presented a narrative of the events that, in her opinion, clearly constitute the crimes of abolition of the democratic rule of law, coup d'état, criminal organization, damage to protected property, and aggravated damage.
Her vote not only focuses on the violent acts of January 8, 2023, but draws a continuous line connecting anti-democratic rhetoric, clandestine meetings with senior military officials, and the drafting of decrees to interfere in the electoral process.
With his vote, the balance is definitely tipped toward conviction. The formation of a majority of three votes (Moraes, Dino, and Lúcia) to one (Fux) makes it mathematically impossible for Bolsonaro to escape conviction, regardless of the vote of the last minister to deliberate, Cristiano Zanin.
The Charges and Possible Consequences
Bolsonaro and his seven co-defendants—including his former chief of staff Walter Braga Netto and his former aide Mauro Cid—face cumulative sentences that could exceed 40 years in prison.
The Attorney General’s Office (FGR) requested a specific aggravating factor for the former president, considering him the “leader” of the alleged criminal organization whose objective was to prevent President Lula from taking office.
On Friday, September 12, once the final result is announced, investigating judge Alexandre de Moraes is expected to propose specific sentences for each of the defendants. (Text and Photo: Cubadebate)